The Graduation Paradox: Why CUNY’s Gold-Standard Support Program Failed to Boost Earnings

For years, the City University of New York’s Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (ASAP) has been the “north star” of community college reform. Designed to combat the high dropout rates and economic instability facing low-income students, the program’s ability to drastically increase graduation rates made it a national blueprint. Yet, a sobering 14-year longitudinal study released last month has introduced a complex, unsettling reality: while ASAP successfully gets students across the graduation finish line, it has not, thus far, translated those additional degrees into the promised boost in long-term earnings.

This finding creates a significant "graduation paradox" for policymakers. If the primary goal of higher education is to provide a ladder to the middle class, what does it mean when the ladder is built, but the destination remains the same?

The Mechanics of a Success Story: A Chronology of ASAP

To understand the current debate, one must look at the origins and evolution of the program.

2007: The Launch
ASAP was born out of a crisis of retention. Community colleges were (and remain) plagued by high attrition; many students would enroll, accrue debt, and leave without a credential, often facing limited employment prospects. The CUNY model sought to change this by providing an "intrusive" support system. Students were not merely offered help; they were required to meet with academic advisors, attend tutoring, and engage in career counseling. To remove barriers to completion, the program also provided financial subsidies for textbooks and public transportation.

2010: The Gold Standard Trial
Recognizing the need for rigorous evidence, CUNY partnered with MDRC, an independent nonprofit research organization, to conduct a randomized controlled trial. Approximately 900 low-income, full-time students were split into two groups: one received the standard college experience, and the other participated in ASAP. The results were staggering. After three years, 40 percent of ASAP participants had earned a degree, compared to just 22 percent in the control group—an 18-percentage-point lead that sent ripples of excitement through the education policy world.

2010s: Rapid Expansion
The success of the 2010 study spurred a national movement. With replication studies in Ohio and Westchester County, New York, showing similarly positive outcomes for diverse populations, the "ASAP recipe" was adopted by more than 90 colleges across 11 states. Today, the program serves over 22,000 students in New York alone, with an annual city budget exceeding $76 million.

2024: The Long-Term Reality Check
The most recent report tracks these original 2010 students through 2024. While the degree advantage for the ASAP group remains—58 percent of ASAP students earned at least a two-year degree compared to 50 percent of the control group—the earnings data told a different story. Over a 14-year period, there was no statistically significant difference in cumulative income between those who received the intensive support and those who did not.

Supporting Data: Dissecting the Earnings Gap

The lack of an "earnings premium" is particularly puzzling given the broader economic consensus that a two-year degree typically correlates with $10,000 to $14,000 in additional annual income. Why did this hold true for the general population but not for the ASAP cohort?

The "Major" Mismatch

One primary hypothesis involves the fields of study. At the time of the initial 2010 study, the ASAP program was heavily concentrated in liberal arts. Many high-demand, high-wage fields—such as nursing, radiologic technology, and other specialized health professions—were either excluded or underrepresented in the program’s early iterations.

While a liberal arts degree provides a foundation for critical thinking, it does not always provide the immediate, tangible marketability of a technical credential. Researchers noted that some students who dropped out of the control group may have entered the workforce earlier, gaining seniority in retail or management roles that eventually equalized their earnings with the liberal arts graduates who took longer to enter the job market.

The Bachelor’s Degree Ceiling

There was a hope that ASAP would serve as a pipeline to four-year institutions, where the "earnings premium" is significantly more pronounced. However, the 14-year data showed no discernible long-term impact on bachelor’s degree completion. Only about 3 percent of the study participants used the program to accelerate their transition to a four-year degree. Consequently, the program succeeded in moving students through the two-year finish line, but it did not necessarily move them into higher-tier career paths.

Official Responses and Institutional Philosophies

The findings have sparked a robust debate among administrators, researchers, and philanthropic funders.

CUNY’s Stance: Beyond the Paycheck

Christine Brongniart, executive director of CUNY’s ASAP program, maintains that the program’s value should not be reduced to a single wage metric. "The goal," she argues, "is to help students complete degrees quickly in the field of their choice." From this perspective, the program is a success because it empowers students to reach their personal goals, providing them with the social and academic scaffolding necessary to navigate a complex system. CUNY officials emphasize that there are non-pecuniary benefits to a degree, such as improved health outcomes, civic engagement, and long-term stability that a 14-year earnings snapshot might miss.

The Philanthropic View

Arnold Ventures, a major funder of ASAP’s expansion, has taken a measured approach. While they acknowledge the lack of earnings growth in the New York study, they point to a separate 2015 randomized evaluation in Ohio. That study, which focused on a different demographic—including many older, non-traditional students in a less urbanized market—found significant long-term earnings gains. For Arnold Ventures, the takeaway is not that the model is flawed, but that it is sensitive to labor market conditions and student demographics. They argue that "single studies rarely provide complete answers."

Implications for Future Policy

The 14-year report serves as a cautionary tale for the "college-for-all" movement. It suggests that while support services can effectively overcome barriers to graduation, they cannot, in isolation, overcome structural labor market limitations.

Pivoting Toward Workforce Alignment

Some colleges have already begun to adjust. In states like North Carolina, newer iterations of the ASAP model explicitly target high-demand, workforce-aligned majors, often restricting enrollment to programs with clear trajectories toward high-paying jobs. By aligning educational interventions with local economic demand, these institutions hope to ensure that the degree is not just a credential, but a key to a specific career.

Strengthening Career Integration

CUNY has also evolved. Since 2010, the program has integrated a more robust career component. Advisors now play a more active role in guiding students toward viable "Plan B" options. If a student fails to gain admission to a nursing program, they are no longer left to drift into liberal arts; instead, they are coached toward adjacent, high-demand healthcare fields. This pivot represents a shift from "completion-focused" to "career-pathway-focused" advising.

Conclusion: The Long Road to the Middle Class

The 14-year study of CUNY’s ASAP program does not suggest that the program failed; it suggests that the challenges of economic mobility are deeper than a college degree alone can solve. Getting students across the graduation stage is an achievement, but it is merely the beginning of a much longer, more complicated journey.

As taxpayers continue to invest tens of millions of dollars into intensive support interventions, the focus must shift from simply "completion" to the quality and utility of the credentials being earned. The "graduation paradox" reminds us that while the education system can change the individual, it also requires a symbiotic relationship with the labor market to truly deliver on the promise of the American dream. The path to a middle-class life is not just a degree; it is the right degree, coupled with a deliberate, supported trajectory into a career that rewards that investment.